Inequalities and economic potential in the integrated development region of the Federal District and surrounding areas: a structural analysis of population, GDP, and employment

Abstract

This article analyzes the socioeconomic dynamics of the Integrated Development Region of the Federal District and Surrounding Areas (RIDE/DF), highlighting the profound structural disparities between the central core (Federal District) and the outlying municipalities in the states of Goiás and Minas Gerais. Using a quantitative and descriptive approach, complemented by structural analysis grounded in the theory of cumulative circular causation, the study employs consolidated data from the 2022 Demographic Census, 2023 Regional Accounts, and 2024 RAIS, utilizing descriptive statistics and the Location Quotient (LQ) to assess regional economic potential from a multiscalar perspective. The results demonstrate economic hyperconcentration in the Federal District, whose per capita GDP (R$ 129,790.44) is approximately 2.5 times the national average, while the surrounding municipalities exhibit an Economic Concentration Relative Index (ECRI) of 0.33 and per capita GDP equivalent to 59% of the Brazilian average. However, the application of the LQ reveals high productive heterogeneity in the surrounding areas, with relative specializations in logistics, agroindustrial, extractive, and manufacturing activities that coexist with the core's concentration. The study concludes that the RIDE/DF operates under a logic of "asymmetric integration," configuring a highly unequal center-periphery system, and reinforces the urgent need for robust inter-federative governance mechanisms and fiscal equalization measures that promote regional development by leveraging the identified territorial complementarities.